The Future of Deterrence: NATO Nuclear Forces After INF by Robbin F Laird & Betsy Jacobs

Author:Robbin F Laird & Betsy Jacobs [Laird, Robbin F & Jacobs, Betsy]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9780367307790
Google: Cj5ozgEACAAJ
Goodreads: 57864781
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2021-05-31T00:00:00+00:00

The Future Evolution of French Tactical Nuclear Weapons Policy

In late 1987, French leaders accentuated the trend, begun several years earlier, towards emphasizing longer range French TNW. During a visit to Germany in October of that year, Mitterrand declared "Nothing allows the conclusion that the last warning of France to the aggressor will be delivered on German territory.. .the nuclear strategy of France is addressed to the aggressor, and to him alone, and to dissuade him, never forget that."67 Later that year, Chirac stated to an audience at the IHEDN that France must be able to effectuate its last-warning strike "as far as possible into the depth of the adversary's posture."68 At the end of the year Mitterrand added that the "last warning does not belong to short-range weapons. There is no reason to deliver the last warning on German soil."69

Mitterrand's issuance of his initial declaration while on a visit to West Germany underscores a fundamental goal of France's continuously increasing emphasis on longer range TNW--to demonstrate increased defense solidarity with West Germany. Even the Hadès missile, if launched from France, would probably fall on East German territory; hence the need for further French assurances to the West Germans that neither they nor their fellow Germans to the east would be the targets of a French tactical nuclear strike.

The conclusion of the INF treaty has given rise in France to an additional motive for emphasizing longer range TNW. Much French analysis has attributed considerable importance to the deployment of American INF in Europe, for their coupling effect between the United States and Europe and because they constituted the NATO nuclear system based on European soil most capable of effectively striking Soviet territory. The elimination of American INF has led to the emergence of the idea of France taking a leading role in helping Western Europe reconstitute the lost intermediate level of deterrence represented by the U.S. Pershing II and cruise missiles.

Both Giraud and Barre have explicitly called for reconstituting this intermediate level of deterrence.70 The concept has not been well defined regarding the level of weapons systems, control of those systems, or the relationship of the proposed European INF with France's own nuclear forces and doctrine. One possible schema has the European nuclear force, for which France and its European partners would share launch authority, co-existing with France's own national forces and doctrine. However, it would undoubtedly be difficult for France to maintain a rigid adherence to its last-warning concept when a portion of its nuclear weapons are assigned to a European force that would presumably operate under different guidelines.

According to a veteran French defense correspondent, discrete discussions have been taking place among the French, Germans, and British regarding die potential weapons and control systems that could, at some point, furnish the basis for a new European INF force.71 French-derived weapons systems that could play this role include a follow-on super ASMP, a longer range version of the Hadès missile, or the new generation S-4IRBM. Possible control systems include a dual key on either the missile or on the warhead.

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